Rotary Club of Bombay West kick started it's first regular weekly meeting on 10th July, 2019 with Rtn. CA Shailesh Haribhakti his talk on "India on the Path to a 5 Trillion Economy?" and his emphatic response was It Certainly Will.
Rattling
off facts & figures, he enthralled the spell bound diverse audience
comprising of Rotarians, Rotaractors & Bombay Industries Association
members with his insight and views of the economy and the final 2019 budget
presented by economist fin min mrs Nirmala Sitharaman.
India
is currently poised with 190 lakh cr GDP, which is roughly just short of 3
Trillion $ (211 Lakh Cr), with a GDP growth rate of 6.8%.
to
reach 5 Trillion $, the GDP growth Rate has to be 8%, which seems possible
due
to the following factors
- stable
government with a clear mandate.
- USD
fluctuations: from 64/- 3 rs ago to 72 and then 68. there have been large
swings
- dramatic
changes on the macro front
- fiscal
deficit is contained at 3.4 % and further it is brought down to 3.3 %, this
signals to the world that inflation is contained & on a downward trend,
improves India's sovereign rating, raising possibility of Gov borrowing
from international financial markets at
very low interest rates from countries like france, where the interest rates
are -ve, and Japan
Large
corporates will not need have to negotiate with bankers! When they can raise
funds from international bond markets. L&t
needed Rs.500 crores, it was offered 3500 Cr! And is currently in process of
borrowing 550 Million USD. Startups
/sme/microfinance firms have extra ordinary access to easy credit. Big
Boys of the indian industry have access to international markets. Currency
markets foward cover is lower than inflation. Coupon
rates are lower than domestic markets. Compared
to china debt to gdp ratio of 3, India's debt to GDP is <1, so there is
considerable headroom to borrow from International Markets.
Explaining
the concept of 'innovating to 0', Mr Haribhakti mentioned the positives of last
5 years.
- 100
% electrification of villages
- Swachh Bharat mission
- India
will be open Defecation free resulting in reduced illness resulting in better hygiene
& health of citizens, saving precious resources.
- Har
ghar mei Nal se Jal: likely to save 30 cr Rural women x 2 hrs daily which which
will lead to immense savings and reallocation of resources. The investment
envisaged for this is several 100 cr every year.
- Highway
/ Roads construction rates have doubled.
- Chandrayaan-2
mission is on the verge of being launched whose objective is to also to
explore/map the availability of helium, an antidote to pollution, supposed to
be in abundance.
- 100
million us$ new funding needs to be found.
Budget
has also given boost to Electric Vehicles. With a exemption of 1.5 lakh
interest on loan for EV pruchase. Also GST on EV is reduced to 12%. A
number of Indian and German Auto cos are in process of launching introducing EV
in Indian Market which has the numbers for sustained growth. L&T
is putting up a 10000 cr solar wind park in 3 yrs time. India
is targetting 40% energy from renewables, which will drasticlly change the
balance of payments, this has given rise to complete fresh thinking. First time in history of india UID + Family Bank Account + DP access & Device
to transact are all available and implemented.
Housing
for All is real: Mahindra Life Spaces has 70% booking on launch of affordable
housing!
The
whole mindset of people has changed for the better to a performance oriented
one as a result about 50% of builders who operate in the same fashion as
earlier are on the verge of closing.
GST:
One nation One Tax though not without the initial hickups is now in its third
year..
Demonetisation:
Incredible 50 million tax payers increasing to 100 million, though 60 million
will be below taxable limit.
New
initiatives such as faceless tax assessment, requiring no visit to the IT
officer has eliminated corruption.
New
Eligibility criteria for Persons for filing Tax return have been introduced
such as foreign travel spending above 2 lac on foreign trip or withdrawal of 1 cr
cash from Bank will entail filing Tax return.
Determined
Tax demand on a capital gain is going to
be a reality in the near future due to compulsory Aadhar / Pan in transactions
& better data mining at the ITO back end.
Loan
/ Credit processing for MSME will take 59 minutes. Startups
have been given a big boost, Angel investor premium valuation norms have been
eased. Capital gain on sale of Residence if invested in startup is expempt upto
2021.
To
reach 5 Trillion GDP, where will the investment com from ? 105
Lakh cr is expected from PSU disinvestment. Increase
in minimum Public share holding to 35 % in listed cos. Next
2 Trillion will come not from the 35 % urban population of India but from the
65 % Rural people of Bharat who are experiencing money in their own Jandhan
accounts.
Pension
for all & Pension for traders is also announced. 14
% salary of government employees goes in Pension/EPF accounts. The
number of registered persons on EPF has gone up by 10 times. 60%
withdrawal qualifying for tax exemption.
Mobility
for all, country wide common card for use on all public transport.
10000
farmer producer organisations to be launched. Every
woman can avail 1 Lakh loan for investing in equity in self help groups. Social
stock exchange: every social organisation's accounts will be audited and
information shared / listed. Banks
to be monitored by a RBI appointed regulatory authoriy, though co-operative and
regional banks have been left out currently, there is going to be significant
drop in NPA
This
is a budget of continuity, infrastructure growth, excitement & clearly
shows the path way to a 5 Trillion $ economy.
- Report by Rtn.Manish Mehta, Hon.Editor, Flying Carpet (club bulletin)
According to Shri Arora, everybody experiences love right from the time
they are born, but love changes its meaning as one grows. It can lead to agony
when it goes away. So it can be a source of bliss or misery. Dwelling upon difference between 'love' and 'moh' (attachment), he said a person with true love imparts values whereas 'moh' leads to ego. To experience pure love, one should live truthfully, excercise restraint, have mercy for fellow living beings and donate generously.
